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Nearly 90% of 16 OEMs are profitable, dealers' inventory digesting performance improves
In 2015, although the growth rate of my country's automobile market has slowed down compared with the same period of the previous year, the production and sales have increased steadily. The average monthly production and sales exceeded 2 million vehicles, and the annual cumulative production and sales exceeded 24 million vehicles. Thanks to this, the scale of production and sales of large enterprise groups has basically remained stable, the overall performance has continued to rise, and the structure of the automobile industry has been further optimized.
As of February 16, according to Flush statistics, a total of 16 listed vehicle companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have announced their 2015 annual report performance forecasts. Among them, 14 car companies announced net profit profit, reaching nearly 90% of the total. Judging from the largest change in the forecasted net profit, the top three net profits that rose year-on-year were Shuguang, BYD and Dongfeng Motor, with growth rates of 1015%, 557.39% and 150% respectively.
In addition, Great Wall Motor and Jiangling Motors announced their 2015 results. Among them, Great Wall Motors achieved operating income of 76.033 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.040 billion yuan, basically the same as last year. Jiangling Motors also performed well, with a net profit of 2.222 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 5.42%
It is worth mentioning that, unlike the previous situation where “complete vehicle companies eat meat and dealer companies drink soup”, among the 9 listed car dealer companies counted by the reporter of Securities Daily, only Zhangzhou Development and SINOMACH are listed. It is expected that net profit and performance will decline, and the remaining 7 companies have indicated that they will achieve losses or pre-increase.
Nearly 90% of car companies' net profit rises
In the fourth quarter of last year, driven by factors such as the purchase tax preferential policy and the car buying boom in winter, the auto industry recovered and the market sales achieved rapid growth, which was also reflected in the 2015 annual report forecasts of various auto companies.
"Securities Daily" reporter learned from the statistics of flushing that among the 16 companies that have announced their 2015 annual report performance warnings, 6 companies have pre-increased their performance, 4 companies have slightly increased, 4 companies have turned losses, and 2 companies have pre-reduced.
It is worth noting that, according to the largest change in the forecast net profit, the top three net profit increases are Shuguang, BYD and Dongfeng Motor, and their growth rates have reached 1015%, 557.39% and 150% respectively.
In this regard, Dawning Co., Ltd. said that this year, with the continuous increase of the state's policy on new energy vehicles, from financial subsidies, exemption of purchase tax to unlimited travel and purchase, electric vehicles will continue to benefit on the road ahead. The company seized market opportunities and vigorously developed new energy vehicles. In 2015, it achieved sales of 1,705 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3,688.89%, which was the main reason for the company's performance growth. At the same time, through the transfer of land use rights in Shenyang Economic and Technological Development Zone, a total of about 167 million yuan in compensation for real estate expropriation has been obtained.
For a long time, SAIC Group has always been firmly in the first place in the net profit contribution of vehicle enterprises. In the 2015 performance forecast, as the representative of large enterprise groups, SAIC Group's production and sales scale has basically remained stable, and the net profit growth rate has maintained at around 6%. The company said that in 2015, the company's vehicle sales reached 5.9019 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%.
As for BYD, the 500% profit growth has attracted much attention. According to Flush iFind data, BYD is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.68 billion yuan to 2.85 billion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate is expected to reach 518.18% to 557.39%.
Regarding the reasons for the good performance, the company said that in the fourth quarter of 2015, the development of domestic new energy vehicles showed explosive growth. "Tang (parts, pictures, inquiry)" in the fourth quarter of 2015, because of its excellent product performance and product competitiveness, made it a leader in sales of similar products; the company's K9, E6 and other electric vehicles in the field of public transportation The popularity of product orders has promoted the rapid growth of the company's new energy vehicle business in the fourth quarter, which has led to a substantial increase in the company's profit level, making the company's operating performance better than expected.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, also affirmed this in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily. He said, "BYD, Jianghuai and other independent car companies have achieved substantial profit growth, in addition to relying on the popularity of SUV sales, they have also caught up with the policy of new energy vehicles."
Nearly 90% of 16 OEMs are profitable, dealers' inventory digesting performance picks up
Dealer inventory digestion improved
According to the VIA "Inventory Warning Index Survey of China's Auto Dealers" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index in January 2016 was 56.6%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month. According to the survey, although manufacturers concentrated their momentum in December last year and the sales demand before the new year was released in advance, the sales in January fell compared with the end of last year. However, the decline of the car buying boom did not increase the pressure on dealers' inventory, mainly because the car The sales tasks set by enterprises and manufacturers to dealers tend to be reasonable, which improves the inventory digestion.
According to the data, CGA took the lead with a net profit of 1.866 billion yuan in the dealers' annual report forecast, a year-on-year increase of 16.39%. At the same time, the reporter noticed that the performance of Dangda Group increased significantly in 2015. With the contribution of new businesses such as new energy vehicles and parallel imported vehicles, the company's overall profitability has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate is expected to reach 40% to 60%.
In addition, Zhangzhou Development suffered its first loss, and it is expected that the net profit loss will reach 80 million to 100 million yuan. It said that the net profit of the real estate business and the automobile trade business in the current period has dropped significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, of which the net profit of the real estate sector decreased by about 75.73 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. The net profit of the automobile trade segment decreased by about 25 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the investment income obtained from the transfer of the equity of the subsidiary in the same period of the previous year was 66.1892 million yuan, and the current period decreased by 65.9863 million yuan year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that in 2016, the biggest good news for auto dealers was the public consultation of the "Measures for the Administration of Automobile Sales (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the "New Measures"). From the perspective of administrative guidance, the new "Measures" explicitly foreshadowed the word "brand" in the current "Measures for the Implementation of Automobile Brand Sales Management", which undoubtedly shows that the government is not interested in breaking the brand authorized sales model and enhancing the autonomy of dealers. and the intention and determination of the right to speak.
Will the new "Measures" bring good news to car dealers in the future? According to Su Hui (Weibo), vice president of the Tangible Automobile Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the answer is yes.
Su Hui believes that the new "Measures" are aimed at maintaining a fair and just market competition order. OEMs cannot require dealers to have both sales and after-sales service functions, and OEM parts manufacturers can freely sell accessories and other regulations. Help to break the monopoly of auto parts sales channels.
However, he also pointed out that the transformation of the competition pattern of the entire automobile market will be affected by many factors, the most important being the implementation and execution in the future. Clauses such as "encouragement" and "suggestion" in the new "Measures" have neither mandatory provisions nor specific rules to cooperate, which may be difficult to serve as binding purposes.
2015年，我国汽车市场增幅比上年同期虽然有所减缓，但产销稳中有增，平均每月产销突破200万辆，全年累计产销超过2400万辆。得益于此，大企业集团产销规模基本保持稳定，整体业绩保持上扬，汽车产业结构进一步优化。
截至2月16日，据同花顺统计数据显示，沪深两市共计16家上市的整车企业公布了2015年年报业绩预告。其中，14家车企预告净利润盈利，达到总数的近九成。按照预告净利润的最大变动幅度来看，净利润同比上涨前三名为曙光股份、比亚迪和东风汽车，其增长幅度分别达到了1015%、557.39%和150%。
此外，长城汽车、江铃汽车公布了2015年业绩快报。其中长城汽车2015年度实现营业收入760.33亿元，同比增长21.46%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润80.40亿元，与去年基本持平。而江铃汽车同样表现不俗，2015年净利润为22.22亿元，同比上升5.42%
值得一提的是，与此前“整车企业吃肉，经销商企业喝汤”的境况不同，在《证券日报》记者统计的9家上市的汽车经销商企业中，只有漳州发展和国机汽车预计净利润和业绩会出现下滑，其余7家企业均表示将实现扭亏或预增。
近九成车企净利润上涨
去年第四季度，在购置税优惠政策和冬季购车热潮等因素的推动下，汽车行业回暖，市场销量实现快速增长，这在各家车企2015年的年报预报中也得到了体现。
《证券日报》记者根据同花顺统计数据获悉，在这16家已经公布2015年年报业绩预警的企业中，6家业绩预增，4家略增，4家扭亏，2家预减。
值得注意的是，按照预告净利润最大变动幅度来看，净利润同比上涨前三名为曙光股份、比亚迪和东风汽车，其增长幅度分别达到了1015%、557.39%和150%。
对此，曙光股份方面表示，今年随着国家对新能源汽车政策的不断加码，从财政补贴、免征购置税到不限行、不限购，电动汽车在前行的道路上利好不断。公司抓住市场机遇，大力发展新能源汽车，2015年实现新能源汽车销售1705台，同比增长3688.89%，是公司业绩增长的主要原因。同时，通过出让沈阳经济技术开发区土地使用权、也获得了房产征收补偿费共计约1.67亿元的收益。
一直以来，上汽集团始终稳坐整车企业净利润贡献的第一把交椅，而在2015年的业绩预报中，作为大企业集团的代表，上汽集团产销规模基本保持稳定，净利润增长幅度维持在6%左右。公司方面表示，2015年度，公司整车销量达到590.19万辆，同比增长5.01%。
而比亚迪方面，500%的利润增幅备受关注。据同花顺iFind数据显示，比亚迪2015年预计实现净利润268000万元至285000万元，增长幅度将有望达到518.18%至557.39%。
对于业绩预喜的原因，公司方面表示，2015年第四季度，国内新能源汽车发展呈现爆发式增长，公司所推出的插电式混合动力汽车“秦（参配、图片、询价） ”、“唐（参配、图片、询价） ”于2015年第四季度因其优良的产品性能和产品竞争能力使其在同类产品中销量处于领先地位；公司K9、E6等公共交通领域的电动汽车产品订单火爆，推动了公司新能源汽车业务于第四季度取得高速增长，带动了公司利润水平的大幅提升，使得公司经营业绩好于预期。
全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树在接受《证券日报》记者采访时也肯定了这一点。他表示，“比亚迪、江淮等自主车企利润的大幅增长，除了借助于SUV销量的走俏，更是赶上了新能源汽车的政策东风”。
经销商库存消化情况得到改善
根据中国汽车流通协会发布的“中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查”VIA显示，2016年1月份库存预警指数为56.6%，比上月上升了4.0个百分点。调查显示，虽然去年12月份厂家集中冲量，新年前的销量需求提前释放，导致1月份销量相比去年年底有所下滑，不过，购车热潮减退并未使经销商的库存压力加大，主要因为车企厂商对经销商制定的销售任务趋向合理，使得库存消化情况得到改善。
数据显示，在已掌握的经销商年报预报中，广汇汽车以18.66亿元的净利润额带头领跑，同比增长16.39%。同时记者注意到，庞大集团2015年业绩增长显著，凭借新能源汽车、平行进口汽车等新业务的贡献，公司的整体盈利能力较去年同期有大幅度提升，增长幅度预计达到40%至60%。
此外，漳州发展出现首亏，预计净利润亏损将达到8000万元至1亿元。其表示，本期房地产业务和汽贸业务与上年同期相比净利润有较大幅度的下滑，其中地产板块净利润比上年同期减少约7573万元。汽贸板块净利润比上年同期减少约2500万元，同时，上年同期转让子公司股权取得投资收益6618.92万元，本期同比减少6598.63万元。
值得一提的是，2016年，对于汽车经销商来说，最大的喜讯莫过于《汽车销售管理办法(征求意见稿)》(以下简称新《办法》)公开征求意见。从行政指导的角度来看，新《办法》开宗明义地隐去了现行的《汽车品牌销售管理实施办法》中“品牌”二字，无疑表明了政府对于打破品牌授权销售模式以及提升经销商自主权和话语权的意图和决心。
新《办法》未来能否为汽车经销商们带来福音呢？在中国汽车流通协会有形汽车分会副会长苏晖(微博)看来，答案是肯定的。
苏晖认为，新《办法》旨在维护公平公正的市场竞争秩序，整车厂商不能要求经销商同时具备销售和售后服务功能以及整车厂代工的零部件厂商可以自由对外销售配件等规定都有助于打破汽车配件销售渠道垄断。
但他也同时指出，整个汽车市场竞争格局转换会受到很多因素的影响，最重要的还是在未来的落实与执行上。新《办法》中“鼓励”和“建议”等条款，既没有强制性规定，也没有具体细则配合，或将难以起到约束目的。
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